The Delphi method belongs to a large family of forecasting methods used by Statistics. In an economy that is becoming increasingly complex, forecasting can be a difficult task. Forecasting is the art and science of predicting future events. The product cycle is a factor that could influence our decision. The reason why forecasting is not always perfect is because there are many variables. Demand can have an impact on forecasting. Seven steps are involved in the system of forecasting. The first step is to determine the use of the forecast. We will then choose the population on which to base our statistical inferences. The third step of forecasting should be determined by the duration, i.e. whether the forecast is short-term or medium-term. After these three steps, it is important to carefully choose forecasting models as well as gather all data necessary for the projection. Last but not least, we must make the prediction and validate the results. Quantitative and qualitative forecasting are the two types of approaches. Five quantitative methods are available, which include the Navi approach, Moving Averages, and Exponential Smoothing, all part of the Time Series Models group. Associative Models are linear trend-regressions which are part of a family of quantitative forecasting methods. Four different qualitative methods are used for forecasting: the market survey, Sales force Composite, Jury Executive Opinion, and Delphi Method.
Delphi’s forecasting method is qualitative. The qualitative forecasting method takes into account the decision-maker’s emotions, experiences, and values. Qualitative research methods can be inaccurate. It is important to consider the vision we have when approaching research. This can be both an advantage and a disadvantage. A smaller sample size may allow for more detailed investigation of a subject. The smaller sample size may also lead to new ideas. A smaller population cannot be generalized. The data interpretation can take a lot of time if we change the questions. We may also have to ask follow-up questions. Diverse questioning can provide researchers with different directions, and can allow them to get deeper into the research process.
The natural environment can produce more accurate results. Data may become unreliable if the respondents becomes neutral. The research will not produce any information if it’s unfocused or poorly planned. RAND Corporation developed the Delphi technique during the 1950s. This technique takes its name from Oracle of Delphi. Delphi technique is also called ETE – Estimate Talk and Estimate. Traditional version is a multi-round questionnaire, which was widely used by businessmen to communicate with a panel. Delphi is an excellent method of anonymously obtaining information, and it’s especially useful for businesses. This allows you to maintain the benefits of interacting with others without a panel member dominating the discussion. The respondent has the option to add or modify the primary response when using the multi-round technique. The Delphi technique, which is qualitative and a mix of text-based and number-based research method, allows respondents to be spontaneous. The responses are often numerical estimates, yes/no ratings, or scales.
Internet has had a huge impact since its introduction in the 1950s. It changed the way people communicate and exchange information. Alaska’s state-wide economic forecast was developed using the Delphi technique. The state budget is heavily influenced by the oil that is pumped through the pipeline in Prudhoe bay every day. The Delphi panel consisted of many experts and representatives from different groups, opinions and geographical areas.
